The ever-evolving dynamics of the business world demand that company leaders anticipate various future possibilities. Hence, Ping Yowargana, Senior Research Scholar at the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), underscored the significance of scenario planning as a long-term business strategy during his guest lecture on Friday (19/4) to MBA students at the SBM ITB. The objective is not only for businesses to survive but also to thrive and ensure sustainability.
Yogawarna elucidated business uncertainties, particularly concerning climate change issues. According to Yowargana, uncertainty surrounding global capacity policies and achieving net-zero emissions could profoundly impact the majority of businesses in Indonesia.
“We are confronted with two options: committing to net-zero emissions through decarbonization or risking isolation from the international community and economic pressures,” he explained.
The concept of emergent practice, encompassing the ‘probe-sense-respond’ stages, is pivotal in adapting to myriad complex possibilities, whether known or unknown. This process, as per Yogawarna, instills responsiveness and flexibility in problem-solving.
Yogawarna delineated structured scenario planning into five phases: orientation, exploration, synthesis, action, and monitoring. The initial phase entails identifying the problem and key drivers while assessing impacts and existing uncertainties. Subsequently, it involves navigating and evaluating to ensure solutions remain relevant and purposeful.
Yowargana stressed that the objective of scenario planning is not to select the most optimal future scenario but rather to cultivate an adaptable approach. This approach enables businesses to endure diverse conditions while fostering a long-term vision for future stability. He concluded the lecture with an inspirational message.
“We (business people) are part of Indonesia. Rather than being hindered by uncertainty, we must assume the role of strategic influencers for a brighter future for Indonesia,” expressed Yogawarna.
